U.S. can not become stronger

Despite some relaxation of tensions around Iraq and the positive expectations about the U.S. stock market, the U.S. currency remained near a three-year minimum to euro

World currency market is still receptive listening to the news about the US-Iraq issue. The closer an original deadline, January 27, 2003, when the weapons inspectors must submit to the UN Security Council the final report on whether the Baghdad of weapons of mass destruction, so investors are sensitive to reports from the Persian Gulf and Washington. Still, some analysts expect that at this week's macro-economic information will be able to take a top position in the eyes of market operators.

Prerequisites for this are reviewed in some of the comments emanating from the IAEA. Remember, this agency is considered to be responsible for verifying the existence in Iraq of weapons of mass destruction and the equipment for its production. Thus, in the last weekend of a senior representative of the IAEA said that the thorough process of military inspections may be needed about a year. According to him, a similar view of the head of the agency, Mohamed al-Baradei (Mohammad al-Baradei) and the leader of the team of UN inspectors, Hans Blix (Hans Blix). This gave hope that the January 27 deadline will not be for a decision on military action against Iraq.

Judging by the media, smooth and sharpness of the North Korean problem, caused by the Friday statement the DPRK to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The entire weekend of diplomats from different countries met in the reinvigoration of the negotiations, giving hope that new steps or abrupt Pyongyang nor Washington will soon not be followed. Nevertheless, the course of American currency is only slightly deviated from reached on Friday, January 10, the three minima in relation to the euro.

By 16:30 Moscow time the dollar was at around U.S. $ 1,0558-1,0565 / euro against 1.0585 U.S. $ / euro Friday evening. The American currency also remained near four-year «bottom» against the Swiss franc. However, traders do not exclude a small correction to increase the dollar against other world currencies.

«Investors are still looking for the dollar is quite skeptical, but against the euro plays a desire to record profits," - said Ryan Shea (Ryan Shea), the chief international economist of Bank One branch in London. - Center of attention is likely to shift towards the U.S. macroeconomic data. All this week, will excite, whether the statistics will show signs of strengthening in economic activity in the United States. The answer, it seems to me, it is still very mixed. The American economy is still trying to vykarabkatsya of being weakened, but not yet proceeded to grow ».

Among the macro-economic information to be published this week, the greatest significance for the market provide data on the dynamics of retail sales in December, industrial output in November and consumer sentiment in the first half of January. In addition, their reports for the fourth quarter of 2002, will present the major American companies. In the technology heavyweights, including IBM Corp., Intel Corp. and Microsoft Corp., as well as the giants of «traditional» sector, General Motors Corp., General Electric Co. and United Technologies Corp.

Investors are not waiting for much of the upcoming corporate results, but it undervaluation of expectations may be at hand «bulls». This has already happened in October-November 2002, when the American stock market, read the quarterly reports of companies, pushed by four minima. On the other hand, according to specialists, a significant change in the monetary situation will not occur. «The U.S. is predominantly negative emotions at the present time, and considerable pressure on him is likely to continue this week», - considers breaker Karl (Karl Broecker), head of the Treasury of Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg.